Jon Wolfsthal explains the long road to North Korea’s nuclear weapons…
Who is Jon Wolfsthal?
“Jon Wolfsthal is a nonresident scholar with the Nuclear Policy Program. From 2014 to 2017, he served as special assistant to former U.S. president Barack Obama as senior director for arms control and nonproliferation at the National Security Council. In that post, he was the most senior White House official setting and implementing U.S. government policy on all aspects of arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear policy. Prior to that, he served as the deputy director of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute for International Studies. From 2009 to 2012, he was the special adviser to then U.S. vice president Joe Biden for nuclear security and nonproliferation and as a director for nonproliferation on the National Security Council. He supported the Obama administration’s negotiation and ratification of the New START arms reduction agreement with the Russian Federation, and helped support the development of nuclear policy including through the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review. He was previously a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and, in his first stint at Carnegie, deputy director of the Nuclear Policy Program. He served in several capacities during the 1990s at the U.S. Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground assignment in North Korea from 1995 to 1996.
Wolfsthal’s Tweets:
“In 1994, the United States negotiated a nuclear agreement with North Korea known as the Agreed Framework.
Under the deal, North Korea was to end their nuclear weapons program in exchange for heavy fuel oil, to energy producing nuclear reactors paid for by South Korea, and diplomatic normalization.
The total cost was cheap – a few billion dollars, mostly paid for by the South.
In 2002, The Bush Admin was upset the deal appeased North Korea, a terrorist state with an horrific human rights record, and was convinced North Korea was cheating.
Bush pulled out of the deal. John Bolton was the Chief State Department official and cheerleader for regime change.
Bolton and company were convinced they could bring enough global pressure to bear on Pyongyang that it would be forced to stop both nuclear and other dangerous activities. They were wrong.
They ignored the fact that Bush’s global reputation was toxic and countries were not interested in supporting US policy.
Defense Secretary Rumsfeld had denigrated “old Europe” including our closest allies UK, France and Germany.
Once freed of constraints and inspections, and in the face of a US seen as hostile and irrational, produced large amounts of nuclear materials and tested its first nuclear weapon in 2006.
Since then North Korea has been off to the atomic races.
Bolton believe the Iraq would show Iran, North Korea, and others that America was back tough and not to be messed with and they would stop their nuclear and other efforts.
Iraq did not have WMD and the Bush Admin, led in part by Bolton and fed by Netanyahu, manipulated intelligence and public opinion to justify the invasion and war against Iraq.
The war colossal failure. The Bush Administration was incompetent, staffed mainly by ideologues loyal to VP Cheney.
Bush rejected IAEA conclusion that Iraq’s nuclear weapons program was dead (Bush was wrong, IAEA was right), failed to adequately prepare for what came after inspectors were kicked out and Iraq invaded, and alienated the allies we needed to support us.
Sound familiar?
Trump now violating the JCPOA – a deal that was working and that IAEA was effectively verifying. Bolton has encouraged and called for this move.
There is no hope US will garner broad global support for a get tough approach. Our allies were willing to work to add onto the deal if we kept the current constraints in place. We did not take yes for an answer.
America is now blamed for demise of the agreement. We alienated our allies and are now threatening them with sanctions. The EU is preparing blocking legislation that will protect their companies and isolate US.
Iran is now freed from nuclear constraints. They can turn the nuclear dial up at a time of their choosing, take advantage of the divide between US and Europe.
We will likely end up with a nuclear Iran or we will be forced to take military action to damage their nuclear capability.
This all falls at the feet of Trump, Bolton and the groups that undermined and misled the public on the JCPOA, falsely claiming it allowed Iran to build nuclear weapons, could not be verified, that Iran was able to keep IAEA out of military sites, etc.
This includes @FDD , @thegoodISIS , @AIPAC and the entire GOP caucus. They own the consequences. They must be held to account.
If they can produce a better deal, I will applaud. But I doubt they can. They have supported an Administration that can’t think or shoot straight. We are all going to suffer for this decision.”