An Explanation of The Unrest in Iran by Golnar Motevalli, Bloomberg's Irani Correspondent .

I had a wee dig at "theory-threads" y'day because seemed people are being barraged by opinions and punditry from far-off locations that aren't providing nuance or failing, for the sake of brevity, personal politics and pithiness, to speak to the complexity of what’s going on 2/

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

4/ one thing that was noticeable on Thursday when protests were largely localised to Mashhad, was how clerical establishment in that city, esp leader of Friday prayers, quickly gave a public statement sympathising with the protesters, saying they had “a right” to be disgruntled

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

6/ This news was carried on Tasnim and Fars, two of the most-read and followed semi-official news agencies which are seen as allied to hardline and ultra conservative factions that are deeply loyal to the security and religious establishment

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

8/ As protests in Mashhad grew, it appeared from videos this wasn’t just about hatred aimed at Rouhani or price of eggs (which is serious, but by all accounts a one-off supply issue driven by avian influenza outbreak).

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

10/ “something else is going on behind the curtain” he then said, addressing whoever it is he thinks that is (ostensibly hardline elements), that “their smoke blew back in their faces”, a Persian way of saying “you shot yourselves in the foot”

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

12/ 2) those organisers or "provocateurs" hadn’t factored-in the possibility that the demos would get overtaken by their own opponents calling for their own end

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

14/ and the state system, and people are angry and unhappy about that, rather than their elected leaders. Also by Friday, seeing that things were escalating and spreading, both hardline and moderate media started calling the protests “counter revolutionary” ...

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

16/ So two competing narratives are at play in terms of how this is being viewed and handled politically here in Iran. In addition to this it's unclear what the overarching objective of the protests is, there is no clear, single concern that can be distilled like in 2009

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

18/ final thought, these events may take us by surprise because of the speed with which they appear to happen and their strength/scope, but there’s no vacuum here. People have been angry about the banking and credit industry in Iran, for example, for a long time

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

20/ Ordinary people still can’t fathom how a small minority in Iran managed to get so rich during sanctions and they still feel like they are bearing the downside of that wealth accumulation. They thought the nuclear deal would bring a deeper, broader economic recovery

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

22/ and here oil prices are also at play. Where the government has managed to very successfully revive oil production and exports to former big customers, like the EU, and rejuvenate a key industry and economic driver, oil prices have dampened those revenues

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017

24/ while we’re on Trump, the impact of his tweets has been marginal at best. They’ve triggered a slew of angry comments, packed with ridicule. Across classes, factions and generations in Iran, there is a shared contempt for #POTUS whose policies look erratic and hypocritical

— Golnar Motevalli (@golnarM) December 31, 2017